The Indian cricket team stands a very good chance of qualifying for the semi-final stage of the ongoing World Cup Cricket Tournament, despite the virtual panic reflected in a large section of the press.

In fact, even though India has entered the Super Six stage without a single match point, statistically speaking, even if India wins only its match against New Zealand on June 12 with a good margin, and, God forbid, loses its match against Australia on June 4 and against Pakistan on June 8, India can still reach the semi final stage if the statistical dice falls correctly.

Of course, if India wins two of its three matches in the Super Six stage, that will further cement its chances of reaching the semi-final stage. Thus, the song and dance the cricket writers are making about the necessity to win all the three Super Six matches for qualifying into the semi-final stage appears to be quite needless.

The teams that have reached the Super Six stage have carried with them the points earned in the league matches against the teams that have finally made it to the Super Six. From Group A, South Africa, India and Zimbabwe have reached the Super Six. India lost its league matches against both South Africa and Zimbabwe, so it has no match points to its credit at the commencement of the Super Six. South Africa won its match against India, which gives it a credit of two match points. And, Zimbabwe won both its league matches -- against South Africa and India -- and has a credit of four match points.

From Group B, Pakistan with 4 match points, New Zealand with 2 match points and Australia with zero match points have reached the Super Six stage.

The format of the Super Six matches is such that each team plays one match against each team of the other group. This makes a total of nine matches.

At the conclusion of the nine matches on June 13, the aggregate tally of match points will determine which four teams make it to the super six and which two get knocked out at this stage.

Thus, India has to be among the top four, even if it is the fourth, to qualify for the semi final stage, which will have a knockout format.

Given the present points, it will be best for India to aim at bettering the score of New Zealand (two points) and Australia (zero points). If that is achieved, India will go to the semi-final stage.

That can happen if New Zealand is thrashed by India on June 12 by a good margin. The margin of victory will be crucial as that will spoil New Zealand's already low net run rate and will increase India's net run rate. Here it may be mentioned that India's net run rate is today not good since only the league matches against Zimbabwe and South Africa, the qualifiers for the Super Six from Group A, are being counted for determining the net rate now. India lost both those matches, so its relevant net run rate is currently negative.

Moreover, in case the match points are tied between two or more teams, the wins in the matches played among them, in the league or the Super Six stage, will determine which team goes to the semi-final stage. In case a tie continues, then the net run rate will decide the matter.

Since India has lost its league matches to both South Africa and Zimbabwe, India must avoid a tie with these countries.

Thus, it would be in India's interest to aim at upstaging Australia and New Zealand, both in match points and in run rate. For this, India should aim at registering comprehensive victories against Australia on June 4 and against New Zealand on June 12.

As for South Africa and Zimbabwe, India should hope that they both, win their matches against New Zealand and Australia, preferably with good margins.

And, as for Pakistan, it does not matter at this stage. The day of reckoning with Pakistan will come at the semi final stage, or in the finals. Comfortably placed with four match points in its pocket, Pakistan needs just one or two wins to make it to the semi-final stage.

Despite the semi-final nature of the upcoming India-Pakistan clash on June 8, the match will provide India another opportunity to earn two match points and improve its net run rate, in preparation for any eventuality.

Of course, the real clash with Pakistan will come in the semi-final stage, and then, perhaps, in the Final at Lords, in the Mother of all One Day Matches.

The task before India, then, is to defeat Australia (June 4) and New Zealand (June 12) comprehensively. That will enure India's entry into the semi-final stage. This time, there is no margin for error.

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